
By GEORGE CHEN in Shanghai
STAFF WRITER OF TreeBar.net
SHANGHAI, Jan 14 (Reuters) - Morgan Stanley's once rocky partnership with China International Capital Corp could earn the Wall Street firm a neat profit of nearly $800 million as Beijing seeks a buyer for a stake in China's top investment bank.
While several powerful foreign firms covet Morgan Stanley's 34.3 percent holding in CICC, potential investors also include Chinese state-owned giants such as Baosteel Group, China's top steel maker, which Beijing may prefer as it wants to keep tight control of CICC, Chinese investment bankers and regulatory sources who are familiar with the matter said.
CITIC Securities , China's top broker, is also interested in the CICC stake though it has not held formal talks on a deal, said the sources, who declined to be identified as they were not authorised to speak to the media ahead of any deal.
Senior CICC executives may not want Morgan Stanley to team up with CITIC Securities in a move that could solidify its rival's leading position in domestic markets, the sources said.
Other potential foreign buyers include Starr International, closely held by Maurice Greenberg, ex-chairman of American International Group Inc , which also has close ties with CITIC Securities after they launched a private equity joint venture targeting China deals last year, the sources said.
Morgan Stanley is expected to exit its relationship with CICC after striking a deal to launch a new Shanghai-based investment banking venture with a local partner.
Late last year, subprime-hit Morgan Stanley sold a $5 billion stake to Beijing-controlled China Investment Corp. Selling its remaining CICC holding at a decent profit would give it a further financial cushion.
Morgan Stanley paid just $37 million for its slice of CICC when the Chinese bank was founded 13 years ago, and its holding in the country's most influential and profitable investment bank could fetch at least 5-6 billion yuan (US$689-$826 million), industry watchers said.
While Morgan Stanley is the seller, Beijing will have ultimate say over who buys the stake as any deal needs the approval of securities regulators.
"Any new partner to replace Morgan Stanley in CICC will have no chance to shake Beijing's control of CICC and they all know this very well before they approach," one of the sources said.
CICC is 43.35 percent held by Central Huijin, an investment arm of China's central bank. Headed by Zhu Yunlai, son of former Premier Zhu Rongji, CICC is regarded as a national champion.
"Beijing wants an investor who has no ambition to control CICC but only wants to share the profits of CICC. In other words, it will be purely a financial investor," one source said.
While private equity firms are among those looking to buy Morgan Stanley's stake, Beijing's desire to keep control may rule out independent-minded buyout firms such as U.S.-based Carlyle Group [CYL.UL], which has struggled to close deals in China.
A spokesman for Morgan Stanley declined to comment.
NO FORMAL TALKS
Morgan Stanley has not held formal talks with any firm for a CICC stake sale partly because some private equity houses that are interested have yet to complete due diligence on CICC, the sources said.
The stake may also be sold to more than one buyer if there is no single acceptable investor for the entire stake.
"If you ask me who are interested in the stake, I can give you a long list of potential buyers, but I believe most of them will disappear after they finish due diligence because the deal may be too expensive for them," said a second source.
"In this case, the stake is likely to be sold to more than one investor," the source added.
Morgan Stanley signed a strategic cooperation agreement late last year with China Fortune Securities, which is controlled by several Shanghai firms. The partners are seeking Beijing's support to set up an investment banking joint venture, Reuters reported on Dec. 7. ([ID:nSHA89513])
There is no rule prohibiting a foreign firm from having two Chinese investment banking joint ventures, but Beijing is not expected to bless such an arrangement, sources close to the situation said. Rival banks are still looking to set up their first brokerage ventures in China.
While CICC has sponsored more than $100 billion worth of IPOs, Morgan Stanley's relationship with its partner has at times been shaky.
In the early days, Morgan Stanley had the right to appoint senior executives including a chief executive. Beijing finally won a management power game after promoting Zhu and other Chinese staff to key jobs at CICC early this decade.
"After the experience with CICC, Morgan Stanley now prefers a small and less powerful local partner in China as all it wants is an investment banking licence," said a Chinese investment banker close to China Fortune.
China Fortune will transfer its investment banking licence to the proposed venture with Morgan Stanley in which the U.S. bank is expected to have management control, and appoint senior executives, including a chief executive, the sources said. ($1=7.260 Yuan)